The resounding triumph of Javier Milei has exposed the underlying crisis of the current regime and the gap between the traditional parties and the general population, especially the most exploited sectors. For this reason, the victory of a right-wing force, far from heralding a period of political and economic stability for the capitalist class itself, has exacerbated the crisis and division within it. The government's defeat leaves it in an even worse position to handle a significant economic collapse, which threatens to escalate into a prelude to hyperinflation, severely impacting governance. The recent devaluation, executed as part of a secret commitment with the IMF, not only worsens the economic crisis but also significantly hampers the possibility of reversing the electoral defeat suffered in the primaries. The projected inflationary surge will hit the working class and further demoralize the government's own base.

Joint defeat of the traditional parties

The flip side of the "libertarian" candidate's election is the unmitigated defeat of the traditional parties who represent the capitalist class. Despite the massive support from governors, mayors, and the unanimous backing of various union bureaucracies, Massa's candidacy barely managed to garner 20% of the votes (representing 14% of the total voter base). In this regard, the events on Sunday must be understood as a decisive chapter in the historical decline of Peronism. Kirchnerism, in its attempt to neutralize this decline by appealing to the right-wing of the current government, ended up suffering a significant setback. The loss of the governorship of Santa Cruz is seen by many as the end of Kirchnerism as a political force. Replacing Wado de Pedro with Massa did not even allow them to go down fighting. Massa couldn't even win the primaries in his own municipality of Tigre, and in the province of Salta, governed by his friend Gustavo Sáenz, Milei secured 50% of the votes.

The defeat of both Peronism and the Juntos por el Cambio coalition is striking. Just a few months ago, the coalition was poised to replace the Frente de Todos in government with almost unanimous support from various capitalist sectors. However, the obtained result represents a significant setback, leaving them in a worse position than even Peronism to face the general elections in October. Patricia Bullrich lacks a compelling angle to counter the rise of Milei, and simultaneously, she has fewer chances of winning against Massa in the October elections. As a candidate, she came in third place and faces difficulties in gaining the votes of her rival in the primaries, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. The political defeat of Juntos por el Cambio is not alleviated by the triumph they achieved in CABA (Autonomous City of Buenos Aires), the central stronghold of the PRO (Propuesta Republicana) party. With 50% of the votes obtained, CABA has already given the Macri-led faction all it can offer. Additionally, Jorge Macri's candidacy, due to its right-wing and authoritarian profile, lacks the essential characteristics to mobilize voters against Milei.

The electoral catastrophe suffered by the traditional forces, however, should not come as a surprise. In the eyes of the population, they are jointly responsible for a broken, indebted, and impoverished country, marked by a significant rise in drug trafficking and its inevitable consequences on public safety. The murder of the young girl Morena in Lanús at the hands of a criminal gang exposed the fact that the municipality led by Bullrich's gubernatorial candidate and the province controlled by Peronism have become zones of lawlessness under the control of the state apparatus (police, judiciary, political power). A similar situation occurred when a bus driver was killed on the 620 bus route in La Matanza. The beating that drivers delivered to Sergio Berni, the Minister of Security of the Province of Buenos Aires, in front of TV cameras foreshadowed the beating that the traditional parties received in the elections this past weekend.

Milei is not an isolated phenomenon

Following the election results, many analysts and political leaders expressed surprise that an eccentric candidate like Milei, both in terms of his personal characteristics and reactionary political positions, emerged victorious in the primaries. However, this analysis overlooks the fact that many of his positions are not new or unique; rather, they are present to a significant extent in the programs of all capitalist forces and were implemented in the 1990s by the very Peronists that held power. After all, the so-called "dollarization", which Milei heavily campaigned on, has its precedent in Menem and Cavallo's fixed 1 to 1 peso to dollar exchange rate, when the Central Bank was reduced to a currency conversion box controlled by international financial capital, which enjoyed a free exchange rate guarantee. A similar situation arises with the privatization of healthcare and education advocated by the "libertarian" movement. Haven't governments, through their policy of underfunding public education and healthcare, been responsible for both the advanced state of privatization and discrediting of these sectors among large sections of the population?

The "rightward shift" observed in these elections is the end result of a broader orientation of the entire capitalist class and its parties against the working class and popular sectors. Even Grabois, who served as the left flank of Peronism to contain discontent with Massa, campaigned based on ending the "lawsuit industry," a slogan promoted by the Industrial Union and the entire capitalist class to curtail workers' labor-related achievements. Máximo Kirchner, for his part, had no qualms about including Minister Tolosa Paz as his second candidate on the list of deputies for the province of Buenos Aires. Given her policies and statements, she could easily be a Minister of Social Development in a potential government led by Javier Milei.

All the lists of capitalist forces made their central focus the suppression of the piquetero movement (a social movement of unemployed workers). While Milei promised to imprison piquetero leaders and his Buenos Aires sidekick Ramiro Marra formed an "anti-piquetero movement", Bullrich produced ads against road blockades (piquetes) and Larreta rewarded Gerardo Morales with the vice-presidential candidacy, after the governor of Jujuy violently repressed his people. However, the Peronists did not hold back either. Not only was Tolosa Paz implementing austerity measures from her ministry, but Cristina Fernández de Kirchner herself called for an end to social organizations, proposing to transfer the administration of social programs to the municipalities in the suburbs of Buenos Aires, an idea similar to Milei's.

Peronism paved the way for Milei's victory not only through its right-wing actions but also through its "leftist" maneuvers. The government's interventionist measures only ended up exacerbating the crisis and economic disarray. The government launched the "Precios Cuidados" (Price Care) program, which resulted in the highest inflation in the last 30 years. The currency exchange controls not only failed to stem the outflow of dollars, but they also led to a de facto split in the exchange market with alternative exchange rates surpassing the official rate by 100% or more. Attempts at implementing a new rental law failed, making it nearly impossible to rent property. The chaotic intervention of a capitalist state led to a significant portion of the population embracing the "libertarian" rhetoric of privatization. The Kirchnerist "present state" turned out to be a powerful ideological campaign paving the way for a subjective shift to the right.

A poor election for the left

The left in general, and the Frente de Izquierda in particular, had a poor election. This assessment doesn't stem solely from a comparison with previous elections but from the evident fact that the rejection of traditional political forces was channeled towards the right rather than the left. The opportunity cost has been substantial. Various factors contributed to this outcome. The primary causes are of an objective nature, independent of the left's own actions. There's no doubt that during the recent period, especially during the pandemic, the prevailing atmosphere in the popular movement was one of passivity. The economic recovery after the end of the lockdown was based on increased exploitation of labor, exacerbating inequalities even within the working class. While the so-called formal sector (registered workers) experienced collective bargaining agreements managed by union bureaucracies that lagged behind inflation, the social collapse and deteriorating living conditions for precarious workers became markedly worse. It was among these sectors, especially the youth, that Milei gained the most votes. The climate of passivity and containment enforced by the union bureaucracy played a significant role in channeling popular discontent to the right.

That being said, the left would make a grave mistake if it doesn't scrutinize its own politics. The Partido Obrero (Workers' Party) has long advocated for the Frente de Izquierda to play a significant role in organizing popular resistance against the government. To be the conduit for popular discontent against the regime, the left needed to embody that discontent on the streets, in factories, in working-class neighborhoods, and in educational institutions. Elections are not, as liberals often portray them, a space where the people choose freely. Far from it, they are conditioned by the balance of power established by social classes in daily struggles. For a worker to vote according to their class interest, first they must act in that manner in their daily lives, starting with their workplaces. This fundamental perspective, however, did not prosper within the FIT-U (Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores - Unidad), where an electoralist and pro-Kirchnerist orientation prevailed. The lack of a clear strategic demarcation from Kirchnerism, especially at a time when it is seen as one of the main culprits of the population's hardships, facilitated the "libertarians" in channeling discontent to the right. Myriam Bregman's persistent endorsements of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner further hindered the left.

Far from being merely a struggle over candidacies, the debate within the FIT-U highlighted strategic issues. The failure to draw a clear line with Kirchnerism was not solely due to electoral calculations; it reflected deeper divergences regarding the capitalist state. In an electoral assessment article, Fernando Rosso, an editor at La Izquierda Diario, criticizes Alberto Fernández's government for implementing "soft statism". This naturally leads to the conclusion that the left desires a "hard statism," a criticism similar to that made by Guillermo Moreno against the current government, describing it as "social democratic." The socialist critique should focus not on the degree of statism but on its class nature. Socialism entails workers managing the economy through a workers' state, rather than an extreme statism controlled by a capitalist bureaucracy.

The ideological confusion and opportunism toward Kirchnerism went hand in hand with turning away from the movement that most challenged passivity and containment: the piquetero movement. In these conditions, the decision of the FIT-U to participate in the primaries wasn't based on electoral calculations (as it was evident we started in a position of less political recognition), but on the political necessity of the left and the working-class vanguard. It's also not a coincidence that this vanguard largely joined our list, either as candidates or to drive the campaign forward. The modest results obtained underscore the depth of the work that remains to be done. The thousands of comrades who actively participated in the campaign leave us, to a certain extent, with a positive balance. They are the driving force for intervening in the new political situation that has emerged.

What is to be done

Milei's victory in the primaries has had an unequal impact on the Argentine people. While broad sections of the population voted for him enthusiastically, more politically aware sectors are genuinely shocked by his openly reactionary program. There is already a state of deliberation about how to address this situation. Although Massa and the Peronists may attempt to exploit this shock to gain support for their candidacy, the recent devaluation executed by the government in agreement with the IMF deals a heavy blow to workers and inhibits Peronism from being a strong channel for resistance against the fascist right. Are we going to confront Milei in an alliance reinforced by the IMF? This fundamental debate is emerging among workers, and the answer seems beyond obvious. We must be alert that the union bureaucracy will likely use the threat of Milei to further paralyze workers and suppress any response or demands against the devaluation. Our denouncement of this tactic must be resolute: we must expose that allowing an attack on workers is, once again, paving the way for the right's victory.

If elections were never the means to effectively counter the right, they certainly cannot be now, especially considering the FIT-U's modest electoral performance. Our call to vote for the Bregman and Del Caño ticket must be integrated into a broader framework of struggle and direct action against the right-wing force led by Milei and the new assault on the people being carried out by the Frente de Todos government in agreement with the IMF. The left must refute libertarian arguments to connect with the popular sectors that voted for our list, and, above all, promote direct action, leveraging the state of deliberation and shock that has arisen. In practical terms, this implies reaching out to the entire population, regardless of their electoral stance, and telling them that it's time to take initiative. We must foster assemblies in workplaces, educational institutions, and working-class neighborhoods to transition into action.

Does Milei want to privatize Conicet (National Scientific and Technical Research Council)? Then let's respond with assemblies of scientists to reject his plans and demand immediate wage increases and budget boosts. If Milei aims to target public universities, let's organize assemblies in faculties to expose his plans and demand an immediate salary and budget adjustment in light of the confiscatory devaluation. If Milei wants to lay off public employees, we demand the immediate conversion of all contract workers to permanent positions to prevent a repetition of the massive layoffs under the Macri government. This method applies to the women's movement as well, given Milei's announced intention to hold a plebiscite to repeal legal abortion, which he plans to support using the churches' influence, which has been strengthened under this government.

The entire situation underscores the necessity for workers' intervention. Therefore, alongside organized and self-organized gatherings in workplaces, we propose a congress of all unions and social organizations, mandated by assemblies, to call for a national strike and a plan of action. This course of action must be accompanied by a program addressing the national emergency: out with the IMF, reopening of collective bargaining agreements, monthly indexation of wages, pensions, social programs, and benefits based on the cost of living, an end to capitalist looting, a refusal to pay external debt, and the nationalization of banks and foreign trade.

The current situation offers the left an opportunity to strengthen ties with the people, overcoming the relative isolation in which it finds itself, as demonstrated in the elections. To seize this opportunity, the left must break free from electoral factionalism and engage in a strong process of organization of the people, to counter the capitalist offensive.

https://prensaobrera.com/english/lets-stand-against-imperialist-war-and-capitalist-catastrophe